Rule Change: Open

Overview

This rule change request from ERM Power seeks a number of amendments to the Medium Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (MT PASA) to improve transparency and accuracy, and extend the projected outlook of MT PASA from two to three years.
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This rule change request from ERM Power seeks a number of amendments to the Medium Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (MT PASA) to improve transparency and accuracy, and extend the projected outlook of MT PASA from two to three years.

The MT PASA is a key part of the reliability framework in the NEM. It is one component of the information that AEMO must publish to inform the market of prevailing and forecast conditions, and when reserves may be running low, to elicit a market response. Providing information to the market helps market participants make operational and investment decisions with respect to reliability and also helps AEMO manage the power system. 

Early submission to the draft determination

ERM Power has made an interim submission to the draft determination proposing:

  • alternative approaches to two of the proposed changes from the rule change request that the AEMC did not make in the draft determination
  • a new change that would require generators to submit an explanation when a generating unit is unavailable.

ERM Power’s interim submission to the draft determination is published below. Stakeholders are encouraged to consider these issues when making a submission to the draft determination. Submissions are due by 9 January 2020. 
 

Draft determination   

On 24 October 2019 the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) made a more preferable draft rule to amend the medium-term projected assessment of system adequacy (MT PASA). 

The draft rule:

  • improves transparency of the MT PASA process
  • reduces asymmetry of generation availability information in the market
  • extends the MT PASA duration to three years.

These changes would better inform the market at a granular level on projected assessments of reliability out to three years, and will likely result in participants making more effective and efficient decisions in how they interact with the market.

The key features of the more preferable draft rule are that it will provide the market with:

  • generation availability of individual scheduled generating units.
  • an extended MT PASA outlook from two to three years.
  • a maximum and minimum aggregated scheduled generating availability, adjusted for forced outage assumptions.
  • transparency of intending generation included as an MT PASA input.
  • published actual demand and forecast demand in the same format (‘as generated’).
  • a requirement on participants to provide MT PASA inputs that represent their current intentions and best estimates.

The key differences between the more preferable draft rule and the proposed rule are that the Commission has:

  • made AER's proposed change to require participants to provide MT PASA inputs that represent their current intentions and best estimates.
  • not made the proposed draft rule for:
    • publishing an additional daily peak demand forecast of 90POE, and
    • requiring a more frequent update to AEMO's demand forecast.

The Commission welcomes submissions on this draft determination and the more preferable draft rule. The Commission notes the Wholesale demand response mechanism draft rule proposes amendments to the MT PASA rule and a final rule determination will be published on 5 December 2019. To allow stakeholders to consider both the Wholesale demand response mechanism final rule determination and this draft determination, submissions to this draft determination are due by 9 January 2020.

Background and consolidation of related rule changes

On 31 March 2019 ERM Power submitted two rule change requests:

These rule change requests seek to make amendments to the MT PASA. As a result, they have been consolidated into one rule change request.

Consultation paper

On 18 July 2019 the AEMC published a consultation paper on the proposed changes to the MT PASA. Submissions were due 15 August 2019 and are published below.

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Documentation