On 28 August 2025, the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC or Commission) published a directions paper in response to a rule change request from the Chair of the Energy Senior Officials and the Victorian Minister for Energy and Resources (the proponents) to amend the National Gas Rules (NGR). The rule change requested the implementation of a reliability standard and related reliability tools for the East Coast Gas System (ECGS). 

The directions paper shared the Commission’s thinking on the issues raised in the rule change request and tested high-level solutions with industry, governments, market bodies and consumers ahead of a draft rule determination.

This paper considered the overarching problem presented in the rule change request through an operational, investment and planning lens.

We sought feedback on the following proposed solutions: 

• The introduction of a tiered risk or threat signalling framework with the levels informed by a probabilistic metric - such as the likelihood of shortfalls or demand exceedance. This would replace and enhance the current ‘flat’ (i.e., non-tiered) system and help the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and market participants respond more efficiently to reliability and supply adequacy (RSA) risks or threats.
• Establishing a Gas reliability committee (GRC) to lead the review of the market price settings for the Short Term Trading Market (STTM) and Declared Wholesale Gas Market (DWGM. The GRC would likely consider a broad range of inputs for the review of the market price settings, including relevant customers’ willingness to pay to avoid curtailment.
• Enhancing the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) and Victoria Gas Planning Report (VGPR) reports with additional information to support more targeted and efficient gas supply and infrastructure planning and investment.

Submissions closed on 25 September 2025.

Background

This rule change request is one of four rule change requests that seek to improve the reliability and supply adequacy (RSA) of the ECGS.

The changes proposed by the four rule change requests intend to build the second stage of an RSA framework, complementing the first stage changes to the NGR applied to the ECGS (stage 1).

The stage 1 changes became effective in May 2023 and expanded AEMO’s powers under the National Gas Law (NGL) to better manage gas supply adequacy and reliability risks in the ECGS from 2023.

We included comprehensive information on stage 1 RSA reforms and an overview of the stage 2 rule change requests in our background paper, published alongside our consultation paper in March 2025. The background paper also includes information on relevant features of the ECGS and the gas markets, as well as a description of the key components of the existing NEM reliability standard.

Next steps and extension

The feedback from stakeholders is helping the Commission refine and validate the proposed options, including informing an assessment of implementation costs and risks, and shape considerations for potential transitional arrangements.  

Together, these insights will inform the draft rule determination, to be published on 26 February 2026 as per the Notice of extension of draft determination.  

The Commission approved the extension of this rule change draft determination to align with the SoLR rule change draft determination publication.  

This will give us time to further consider issues of difficulty and complexity arising from the interactions between the rule changes comprising the stage 2 ECGS Reliability and Supply Adequacy (RSA) reforms.