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Power of Choice and other energy market reforms

14 October 2014

SPEECH BY COMMISSIONER NEVILLE HENDERSON AT 2014 EUAA CONFERENCE

Power of Choice and other energy market reforms

13 October 2014

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I’d like to start by acknowledging the traditional owners of the land on which we meet and pay my respects to their elders both past and present.

Can I also thank Phil Barresi, CEO of the Energy Users Association of Australia for inviting the AEMC to address you today and pass on my apologies that Chairman John Pierce cannot be here.

When John spoke at this conference last year – which I’m sure many of you attended, he talked about some of the key drivers of electricity price rises in recent years – environmental policies and investments in the distribution network, principal among them.

He also talked about the strategic priorities of the Australian Energy Market Commission and some of the work under way as part of the Power of Choice reforms, which hold promise for both small and large energy users.

Twelve months later, there has been significant change for our sector in terms of policy and regulation which affect energy prices.

It can be helpful to think about those things which affect energy prices as grouped into three broad areas.

  • The competitive sectors in retail and generation;
  • The regulated distribution and transmission network; and
  • Other policies which sit in non-energy portfolio areas – mainly environmental policies – that impact on the energy sector.

In terms of the latter, the carbon tax has been removed and we are knee-deep in a public discussion about the future of the Renewable Energy Target.

In terms of the distribution network, the AEMC’s new rules governing how the Australian Energy Regulator will approve network revenue are starting to be implemented and we are seeing networks engaging with consumers, large and small, directly on their investment plans.

We have also just seen the Federal Government’s Energy Green Paper, which will no doubt see in some changes for the energy sector.

So reforms to the electricity market therefore continue to move forward and this has been helped by the governance model that has developed since the inception of the National Electricity Market.

As most of you know, the AEMC is the rule maker for most parts of the supply chain across electricity and natural gas.

We also provide advice to governments on energy market development, based on Terms of Reference provided to us by the COAG Energy Council.

We do not initiate our own rule change requests and instead rely on requests from governments, market participants and indeed any other party who sees an issue to be addressed.

So the remit of the AEMC and other market institutions, including the AER and AEMO, covers the first two of these three elements impacting prices – the competitive sectors and network regulation.

There are some clear advantages to this governance model, particularly in the clarity of roles and responsibilities across the different institutions. It does however mean that the delivery of rule changes can be tied to the timeframes and deliberations of other market institutions.

The Power of Choice reforms are a good example of what this means in practice.

The final Power of Choice report and proposed implementation plan were provided to the COAG Energy Council for their consideration in November 2012.

This included a range of recommendations to improve demand side participation in energy markets. The five rule change requests that came out of the Power of Choice Review took about a year to be agreed upon and submitted to the AEMC.

And once we receive the rule change requests we undertake a thorough process of consultation and engagement to make sure that all stakeholders have a chance to contribute to the debate.

This generally involves Consultation Paper, public forums, targeted stakeholder workshops with further consultation on a Draft Determination, before a Final Determination is made.

These sorts of timelines can sometimes frustrate those keen to see reforms progressed quickly.

The Commission shares the eagerness of many, including the EUAA to see the potential of the Power of Choice review realised.

The principle behind the review – to give energy users, including commercial and industrial consumers, choice, and allowing those choices to drive energy market development – continues to motivate the AEMC’s priorities and work program.

Today I’d like to focus on a few of the key reforms coming out of the Power of Choice review – changes to how distribution network tariffs are determined and expanding competition in metering and related services.

As I mentioned earlier, the overall amount of revenue networks are able to recover has been dealt with in earlier rule changes, particularly, the rule change in relation to Economic Regulation of Network Service Providers in 2012.

As you will remember, these changes related to the rules governing how the maximum revenue a network business recovers from all consumers is determined by the AER.

The changes included a new rate of return framework that is common to electricity distribution, electricity transmission and gas.

It requires the AER to make the best possible estimate of the rate of return at the time a regulatory determination is made, taking into account market circumstances, estimation methods, financial models and other relevant information.

The AER is required to undertake an open and consultative process at least every three years to develop its approach to setting the rate of return.

The new common framework also enables the regulator to take a range of different approaches to estimate the return on debt component, potentially allowing for reduced risk for debt financing for network businesses.

And importantly, it removes ambiguities regarding the powers of the AER to interrogate, review and amend capital and operating expenditure proposals submitted by network service providers.

The AER’s authority in this area has withstood Tribunal review, so you as consumers can feel confident that a robust regulatory mechanism is in place so that total revenues collected are appropriately determined.

Building on this, the rule change we’re working on currently – changes to distribution network pricing arrangements – looks at how that revenue is recovered. Making sure that the structure of network tariffs is helping to send efficient price signals back to consumers and in the process removing cross subsidisation between consumers.

Big energy users like many of your businesses tend to have a sophisticated understanding of their energy use largely due to the size and significance of that cost to running their business.

You’re probably also aware of the significant proportion of your bill that is made up of network charges.

Manufacturing, commercial and industrial, and electricity, gas water and waste services, are responsible for around 63 per cent of Australia’s electricity use.

Most if not all of you have interval meters so you are aware of how and when you use power. What has been missing is the ability to use the information you receive from your meter to influence that large bucket of network charges.

The price signals you currently receive are largely ‘muffled’ by a distribution network pricing structure which is not cost reflective.

Under current price structures, energy users pay the same network price even if the costs of such usage vary by location and time, regardless of how or when they are using power.

Existing network prices over-recover revenue for off-peak use of the network and under-recover for peak use.

This means energy users who use most of their energy at off-peak times are paying more than it costs to supply network services to them – while those using energy at peak times are paying less than it costs.

As an example, a residential consumer using a large 5kW air-conditioner in peak times will cause about $1,000 a year in additional network costs compared with a similar energy user without an air-conditioner.

But this residential consumer with the air-conditioner pays about an extra $300 under the most common network prices.

The remaining $700 is recovered from other consumers, big and small, through higher network charges.

Our Draft Determination on distribution network pricing will create the conditions for network prices paid by individual consumers and businesses to better reflect the cost of providing network services to them. It will allow more efficient price signals to emerge, removing cross subsidisation and giving 5 energy users the information they need to decide what technologies might work best for them to manage usage, and help reduce their energy costs.

We have analysed the impact of the changes to distribution network pricing arrangements on residential customers. That analysis estimates that up to 81 per cent of residential consumers would face lower network charges in the medium term under a cost-reflective capacity price and up to 69 per cent would see lower charges under a critical peak price.

The next piece of work, which we have recently commissioned, looks at the likely impact on business – particularly larger commercial and industrial energy users.

We do, of course, have some relevant experience to draw on – Ausnet already offers flexible pricing for network services in their distribution area in Victoria.

If you’re a business with a relatively flat load profile you should see lower network charges, reflecting the lower demands you place on the grid.

And some energy users will choose to respond to new network price structures by further reducing their use of the network at peak times, which will reduce overall network costs, with savings passed on to them.

The AEMC’s draft rule also sets out new processes and timeframes for setting network prices to improve certainty, timeliness and transparency for consumers and retailers. This should help businesses plan their expenditure more effectively and avoid bill shocks.

The Commission fully appreciates the eagerness of this sector – the EUAA and its members – to see this rule change progressed.

There have been claims by some that no concrete action is planned for the short term. That is wrong.

A final determination on this rule change is due to be published in November. This will include a phased implementation plan to give industry and consumers time to adjust to the change, with the new rules to be implemented progressively between next year and 2017 in all jurisdictions, depending on when regulatory determination cycles occur.

Linked with the distribution network changes, is another Power of Choice building block, aimed at creating opportunities for a competitive energy services market.

We don’t necessarily know which technologies will develop in the future or how they will be used, but we know technology will empower all consumers and help drive innovation and change.

And it will do that best if there is competition in the market for these products and services.

The rule change to promote competition in metering and related services, along with the open access and common communications standards framework for smart meters, as well as arrangements to allow multiple trading relationships at the consumer’s connection point - these reforms will all work together to provide energy users a greater armoury of tools to respond to market signals and make decisions about the best and most efficient way for your business to consume energy.

A discussion paper on the competition in metering and related services rule change is currently online and we’ve just completed a series of stakeholder workshops as part of that consultation process.

I’d like to turn now to the third area I identified earlier as influencing energy market outcomes – the integration of policies outside the energy portfolio.

Governments legitimately have a range of policy objectives in addition to energy policy objectives.

The Renewable Energy Target does not need to be designed in a way that negatively interferes with the goal of efficient markets.

The desire to encourage renewable generation need not be at the expense of the wholesale market.

The RET in its current form is not able to adjust to prevailing market conditions.

As demand has fallen, new renewable capacity has continued to be developed. Falling demand in an efficient energy-only wholesale market like the NEM would signal to generators that no new capacity is required. The RET however provides an incentive for additional build.

In this sense the RET has shifted the risk allocation in the National Electricity Market.

Prior to the RET, generators bore the risk of their assets being under-utilised by falling demand.

Generation built under the auspices of the RET does not bear that risk which instead has been transferred to consumers in the form of retailer compliance costs.

The effect of this has been to create a disconnect between retail and wholesale prices. So there is a wedge between retail and wholesale prices, where the former has increased given the obligation on retailers to procure renewable certificates, while the latter prevents the appropriate demand-side response and ultimately the efficient clearing of the wholesale market.

In our submission to the RET review, we proposed two possible solutions.

First, moving the RET to a floating target, as opposed to a fixed GWh target. This would shift the allocation of demand risk away from consumers and more appropriately share it amongst investors – renewable and thermal – who are better placed to manage such risk and profit from efficient decisions.

The Commission believes this is a more sustainable approach, allowing the RET to better integrate with the structure of the National Electricity Market.

An alternative we put forward is to Transition the RET to an emissions intensity based scheme for the electricity sector.

This scheme could be designed in a number of ways, including where generators below a defined emissions intensity level create certificates that generators above the level are liable to purchase.

Retailers and other liable entities under the current RET scheme would not participate directly.

This type of approach would encourage all lower emissions technology options, not only renewable energy, and is therefore likely to meet any emissions reduction target at a lower cost – and that means lower energy bills for small and large consumers.

Both options would provide a viable path forward and greater certainty for large energy users.

Finally, I want to update you on the AEMC’s work in relation to gas markets.

Promoting the development of efficient gas markets is one of the AEMC’s strategic priorities.

There are major structural shifts occurring in gas as we ramp up to LNG exports from Gladstone.

Given these developments, last year the AEMC initiated a scoping study to consult with stakeholders and identify areas of potential improvement in the market and regulatory arrangements.

One of our key findings was the need for an integrated gas market development plan within which the industry can work towards achieving a mature and well-functioning market.

This would help build certainty around what the LNG export developments mean for the domestic market and the direction that gas market development should take in response.

An important part of this work will be to consider the future role and objectives of the gas trading hubs on the east coast, including possible reforms to trading hubs which might increase the ability for market participants to manage risk and in turn facilitate greater trading and liquidity.

Over time, we expect that this type of gas market development work will lower barriers to entry in these markets and promote greater competition by providing gas users with additional options for sourcing their gas.

We are engaging with governments and stakeholders to support a gas market framework which continues to promote efficiency and competition.

The last twelve months really has seen substantial change in the energy sector and there is much to be optimistic about.

Some changes to environmental policies are having an immediate dampening effect on energy prices. While others are still being determined but we are hopeful of a decision that supports efficient market outcomes.

I believe we are making headway in getting a more reasonable approach to approvals of distribution network revenues, and the removal of cross-subsidies in network tariffs.

Change can be good if it’s relatively predictable and its objectives widely understood.

Ultimately that is what I think the AEMC, through its work with governments and stakeholders, is trying to achieve – a pathway forward and a sensible and sustainable set of policies and rules which are predictable, coherent and work together, or integrate, to encourage competition in the energy sector.

I look forward to continuing to work with the EUAA and its members to promote the development of robust, competitive markets that will continue to support the vital contributions that your businesses make to the Australian economy.

Thank you.

ENDS

Register now for stakeholder workshop on competition in metering and related services rule change

25 September 2014

Registration is now open for the AEMC’s fifth stakeholder workshop on the competition in metering and related services rule change. The workshop will be held in Melbourne on 9 October 2014 and will discuss:

  • transitional arrangements for Victoria;
  • governance of the minimum functionality specification;
  • the proposed jurisdictional arrangements; and
  • requirements for the implementation of the competitive framework.

To register for this workshop, please contact Claire Richards at claire.richards@aemc.gov.au or on (02) 8296 7800, by 3 October 2014. Further information about the workshops is available on the project page

A consumer driven market

19 September 2014

SPEECH BY COMMISSIONER JOHN PIERCE AT 2014 NEM FUTURE FORUM

A consumer driven market: the next chapter in a national productivity improvement story

19 September 2014

DOWNLOAD PDF VERSION

Thank you for being here today to discuss the future of the National Electricity Market.

Before we begin, I’d like to acknowledge the traditional owners of the land on which we meet and pay my respects to their elders both past and present. I’d also like to acknowledge:

  • Keith Orchison, our Chair today, and
  • All our other speakers.

I’ve been asked to speak about where the national energy market is now, and where it’s headed in the future.

As a Commission, we are in a sense quite agnostic about the future. We are not in the business of making forecasts of demand, prices, relative costs and technologies.

In performing our role, we don’t need to, because ultimately it will be consumers doing what consumers do – making consumption decisions based on the price and service options available to them – that will drive the way the sector develops.

But where we are now?

The National Electricity Market has been on a fairly consistent reform path over the past 25 years or so.

I don’t intend to give a history lesson today, but briefly: the reform of the energy sector was part of a major period of economic reform kicked off in the 80s, which included reforming a set of capital intensive utility services such as energy, communications, transport and water, whose performance was not supporting long term economic growth to the extent that it could.

These assets were state owned, centrally organised and monopolistic.

Since then, the story in our sector has been one of separating policy and regulatory functions from industry; industry restructuring; and bringing competition to the sector.

A key characteristic of the old industry structure – and one that makes what we have today in the competitive generation and retail sectors different – is where demand and investment risks fall and the way they are managed.

It is in fact how these risks are allocated between consumers and businesses that determines whether ‘what we have’ deserves to be called a market at all.

Numerous reports and reviews dating back to the 1986 McDonell and 1988 Curran inquiries in NSW, through to the Western Australian Economic Regulatory Authorities’ report on that State’s wholesale electricity market published last year, show that wherever you have a central authority determining how the sector is to develop – how much investment is to occur – how much capacity is to be built or procured based on fallible forecasts of the future – the costs of getting these decisions wrong rests with consumers.

For the future of the sector to be driven by consumers deciding what is of value to them, one of the prerequisites is that demand and investment risks are managed by businesses, operating in a workably competitive market.

You don’t need to believe – though you may choose to – that people making investment decisions based on forecasts of the future working within an AGL or Origin or Alinta, are any better at foretelling the future than people – possibly the same people – working within a central authority. The point is the risk allocation, the way it’s managed and the associated incentives are different.

We have come a long way but there is, of course, work to be done.

We have clearly commenced a new stage where the NEM’s development is driven by consumers making choices about the way they source and use energy.

The measures set out in the Commission’s Power of Choice reform package, and the reviews of retail competition, which included proposals to address the way distribution tariffs are structured that are now at the Draft Rule stage, are about facilitating consumers move from the “back seat” to the “driver’s seat” – giving them better information and tools to make informed choices about their energy consumption.

A key question though is will they find it a comfortable seat and a pleasant experience?

Consumers – that is, people – need to be as comfortable making choices about energy as they are picking items off the supermarket shelf.

When you think about the process of choosing products at a supermarket, a consumer is able to scan a shelf, run their eye past the Tim Tams, the Iced Vovos, the Mint Slices (a personal favourite), the Scotch Fingers, and all the while weighing up taste, quality, price, your attempt to be virtuous with respect to diet. And pretty quickly narrowing it down to a couple of options – the Iced Vovos and the Mint Slices – and buy both.

Granted energy is a little more complicated than that, but fundamentally we want to get to a place where consumers are as comfortable making decisions about energy as they are other products and services, where competition and choice is taken for granted.

And to do that people need information; they need tools; they need to be engaged; they need a reason to be engaged; and they need the price they pay for energy to reflect the cost of supplying them, as individuals.

Together, the AEMC’s Power of Choice reforms and the lessons from our reviews of retail competition are key to achieving these objectives.

One of the Power of Choice building blocks is the distribution network pricing rule change, which aims to have network prices paid by individual consumers better reflect the cost of providing network services to them.

Currently, even if the total costs of network services is at efficient levels, many individual consumers pay more than the costs caused by their usage, because of the way network prices are structured. Other consumers, in particular those that use a greater proportion of their energy at peak times, pay less than the costs caused by their usage.

Existing network price structures over-recover for off-peak use of the network and under-recover for peak use. In the draft rule determination, we include a number of case studies to explain this.

By way of example a consumer using an average size north facing solar PV system will save themselves about $200 a year in network charges compared with a similar consumer without solar.

Because most of the solar energy is generated at non-peak times, it reduces the network’s costs by $80, leaving other consumers to make up the $120 shortfall through higher charges.

The same consumer could reduce network costs considerably and align with the savings they receive, by facing their panels west, generating more energy 4 at peak times when it is most needed. That is, less energy in total, but more when it is most valued.

Under the existing network pricing arrangements, the consumer has no incentive to do so as they benefit more by generating more total energy throughout the day.

Equally, a consumer using a large 5kW air-conditioner in peak times will cause about $1,000 a year in additional network costs compared with a similar consumer without an air-conditioner.

But the consumer with the air-conditioner pays about an extra $300 under the most common network prices. The remaining $700 is recovered from all other consumers through higher network charges.

In both examples, some consumers are paying more than it costs to provide services to them, and others less.

The objective of the changes set out in our recent Draft Determination is that network prices paid by individual consumers better reflect the cost of providing network services to them, as individuals.

This will allow consumers to make more informed choices about what energy services they value.

It will also give consumers the information they need to decide what technologies might work best for them to manage their usage, and help reduce their energy charges.

From a market and overall system point of view, it will mean consumers' choices are the driving force behind market development and investment and provide the conditions for a more effective and competitive energy market.

Of course it’s one thing to create the market conditions for choice, but consumers also need the tools to respond to market price signals.

Another important Power of Choice building block is creating opportunities for a competitive energy services market.

It goes without saying that consumers use of technology will be a huge part of the process in driving change and market development in coming years.

We don’t necessarily know which technologies or how they will be used, which is precisely why the Commission’s policy work is agnostic about technological development, but we know they will drive innovation and change and the system must be flexible enough to respond to that change.

The rule change to promote competition in metering and related services; the open access and common communications standards framework for smart meters; arrangements to allow multiple trading relationships at the consumer’s connection point; and measures to improve the switching process – these reforms will all work together to help the energy services market evolve in a way that supports consumer choice.

So how might we predict the future for the National Energy Market?

My advice is to follow the consumer.

They’re in the driving seat and technology is propelling them very quickly in relatively unpredictable ways.

Increasingly, they’re expecting engagement. Not only to be consulted on industry and regulatory activity but to actively participate in the energy market.

So in terms of how the Australian Energy Market Commission sees the energy market of the future, we don’t plan to bet on any single possible future.

Instead, we want a system which is flexible enough to respond to the increasingly sophisticated and diverse demands of consumers, which allows their choices and preferences to drive market development.

But, we won’t get there if we start fiddling with the way energy is bought and sold (the means of exchange) or if there are policy interventions in the market that undermine its operation and the ability of price to reflect underlying demand and supply conditions.

So let’s talk about capacity (so called) “markets”.

There has been increased chatter in recent times suggesting that there may be a case for a fundamental redesign of the wholesale energy market – a move to a capacity (so called) “market”.

This, at least in part, appears to be motivated by the current disconnect between wholesale and retail prices and generation oversupply.

The WA energy market is a good local example of the problem with capacity markets and the WA Government is currently grappling with what to do about the problems they cause – predominantly higher risk and generally higher prices for consumers.

The WEM is typical of other capacity markets in that it relies on a central authority to predict and procure generation capacity.

If your system requires an omnipresent, all knowing being – let’s call him or her ‘god’ – to understand a system completely, have perfect powers of prediction and to know what capacity should be set to match future demand, the only thing you can perfectly predict is that god will be wrong.

In reality, typically in capacity markets our omnipresent, perfect bureaucrat will contract or regulate for too much supply, because that is the rational thing to do given the incentives god faces.

And when he or she gets it wrong and over contracts, the consumer pays.

That is certainly the case in WA. It was the case in the “olden days” of the state-based utilities. The consequence of this type of structure is that demand risks fall on consumers.

We’ve well and truly moved away from this era in the NEM – indeed as I’ve spent most of today’s speech talking about, we are headed in exactly the opposite direction.

So the message to those intending to fiddle with the development of a consumer driven energy market and revert to the risk allocation of the old days is a simple one – you are heading in the wrong direction.

Part of the underlying issue here of course, is the impact of bringing together the way the energy market works with the particular way the Renewable Energy Target is designed.

In effect, because the RET sets a specific GWh target, its risk allocation is the same as a capacity (so called) “market”.

These issues of the interface between the two have always been there, but have only become more evident with the drop off in demand growth.

Governments legitimately have a range of policy objectives in addition to the traditional energy policy objectives.

That’s why we have elected governments to specify policy objectives. But in achieving these different objectives we must be careful, wherever possible, not to jeopardise the achievement of one to the benefit of another.

When contemplating the effective integration of energy and environmental policy, it is important to design a mechanism to achieve an emissions reduction objective that preserves the means of exchange and allocation of risk in energy markets. Because these are the characteristics that make the energy market, a “market” in the first place.

For the NEM to be an effective market, it must be able to respond to changes in demand driven by consumer preferences, changes in technology and other factors, like relative prices, which cannot necessarily be predicted.

For a policy to be sustainable there needs to be a reasonable opportunity to adapt to material changes in market conditions, in a consistent manner.

Robust policy positions should not be predicated on one particular view of the future.

For environmental policy like the RET to be sustainable, investors also need a level of confidence that policy objectives can be met and are sufficiently robust to adjust to changes in market conditions.

It is due to the divergence in the risk allocation mechanisms in the energy market on the one hand, and the current RET design on the other, that we proposed, in our submission to the RET review, moving the RET to a floating 20 per cent target in 2020, as opposed to a fixed GWh target.

The important point is not even the level at which the target is set – let’s call the target “X” – it’s that it is “X per cent” of whatever demand happens to be.

This would shift the allocation of demand risk away from consumers and more appropriately share it amongst investors – renewable and thermal – who are better placed to manage such risk and profit from efficient decisions.

While consumers are going to drive much of the change we experience in the energy market in the coming years through their demands and preferences, we also have to make sure the benefits flow to all consumers.

And we must ensure some consumers don’t get lost in the change and the increasing diversification of the sector. This involves a massive communications challenge.

In May this year, the Commission held its first strategic priorities forum with consumer representatives in order to deepen our relationships with consumers and their advocates as we consider the agenda ahead of us.

Consumer engagement was right at the top of the list of issues we are dealing with, particularly ensuring they having full information about contracts, offers and changes related to new flexible pricing structures.

Equally significant to consumer groups was the impact of energy prices, along with the importance of consumer protections, particularly those that support more vulnerable and low income consumers.

So we need to be able to respond to those concerns about ensuring all consumers benefit from greater competition, and respond to concerns about the necessary consumer protections needed into the future.

Many consumers need the information and confidence to become more engaged in shopping for energy. Our Consumer Engagement Blueprint for the review of competition in NSW energy retail markets recommended strategies to achieve this, including:

  • providing information to consumers that uses different channels to target specific consumer segments as well as the broader community,
  • refinements to existing comparison tools so that consumers have a trusted source of advice that allows ‘apples for apples’ comparisons, many of which are already being considered by the AER, and
  • providing additional support to consumers that need it.

And many of these reforms are being rolled out with some good results.

For example, it was encouraging to see in our recent report on competition in retail electricity and gas markets that 90 per cent of all consumers were aware they could choose their energy company, up to 40 per cent had actively investigated options, and up to 28 per cent had actually switched during 2013.

Consumers are shopping around for better gas and electricity deals more often than they are switching insurance companies, or phone and internet providers.

New retailers are entering markets and winning customers with discounts and other incentives, with conservative estimates of savings from $60 to $240 or more a year, depending on where they live and how much electricity they use.

The other aspect of the communications challenge is to understand that there are an increasing number of already engaged consumers – energy literate consumers – who want an entirely different energy product compared with what has been provided to them in the past.

So as we embrace the challenge of responding to diverse needs – from highly energy literate consumers, to more traditional consumers, to vulnerable consumers – it will be important to have a market that is flexible and able to respond to diversity and range of possible future scenarios.

In the years to come, the structure of the energy sector may be quite different to the one we see today.

The increased interest of new technology providers in our sector has the potential to reshape the way we think of an energy services provider.

The increased use of electric cars, the uptake of home energy management systems and technologies, and other possible demand game changers, which may work in completely opposite directions.

All this has the potential to change the face of the energy sector.

The focus of the AEMC – the agnostic AEMC – is to care deeply about the future and develop the NEM into a market that is flexible and able to respond to whatever the future holds.

Thank you for listening and enjoy what promises to be a fascinating day’s discussion.

ENDS

A consumer driven market

19 September 2014

SPEECH BY COMMISSIONER JOHN PIERCE AT 2014 NEM FUTURE FORUM

A consumer driven market: the next chapter in a national productivity improvement story

19 September 2014

DOWNLOAD PDF VERSION

Thank you for being here today to discuss the future of the National Electricity Market.

Before we begin, I’d like to acknowledge the traditional owners of the land on which we meet and pay my respects to their elders both past and present. I’d also like to acknowledge:

  • Keith Orchison, our Chair today, and
  • All our other speakers.

I’ve been asked to speak about where the national energy market is now, and where it’s headed in the future.

As a Commission, we are in a sense quite agnostic about the future. We are not in the business of making forecasts of demand, prices, relative costs and technologies.

In performing our role, we don’t need to, because ultimately it will be consumers doing what consumers do – making consumption decisions based on the price and service options available to them – that will drive the way the sector develops.

But where we are now?

The National Electricity Market has been on a fairly consistent reform path over the past 25 years or so.

I don’t intend to give a history lesson today, but briefly: the reform of the energy sector was part of a major period of economic reform kicked off in the 80s, which included reforming a set of capital intensive utility services such as energy, communications, transport and water, whose performance was not supporting long term economic growth to the extent that it could.

These assets were state owned, centrally organised and monopolistic.

Since then, the story in our sector has been one of separating policy and regulatory functions from industry; industry restructuring; and bringing competition to the sector.

A key characteristic of the old industry structure – and one that makes what we have today in the competitive generation and retail sectors different – is where demand and investment risks fall and the way they are managed.

It is in fact how these risks are allocated between consumers and businesses that determines whether ‘what we have’ deserves to be called a market at all.

Numerous reports and reviews dating back to the 1986 McDonell and 1988 Curran inquiries in NSW, through to the Western Australian Economic Regulatory Authorities’ report on that State’s wholesale electricity market published last year, show that wherever you have a central authority determining how the sector is to develop – how much investment is to occur – how much capacity is to be built or procured based on fallible forecasts of the future – the costs of getting these decisions wrong rests with consumers.

For the future of the sector to be driven by consumers deciding what is of value to them, one of the prerequisites is that demand and investment risks are managed by businesses, operating in a workably competitive market.

You don’t need to believe – though you may choose to – that people making investment decisions based on forecasts of the future working within an AGL or Origin or Alinta, are any better at foretelling the future than people – possibly the same people – working within a central authority. The point is the risk allocation, the way it’s managed and the associated incentives are different.

We have come a long way but there is, of course, work to be done.

We have clearly commenced a new stage where the NEM’s development is driven by consumers making choices about the way they source and use energy.

The measures set out in the Commission’s Power of Choice reform package, and the reviews of retail competition, which included proposals to address the way distribution tariffs are structured that are now at the Draft Rule stage, are about facilitating consumers move from the “back seat” to the “driver’s seat” – giving them better information and tools to make informed choices about their energy consumption.

A key question though is will they find it a comfortable seat and a pleasant experience?

Consumers – that is, people – need to be as comfortable making choices about energy as they are picking items off the supermarket shelf.

When you think about the process of choosing products at a supermarket, a consumer is able to scan a shelf, run their eye past the Tim Tams, the Iced Vovos, the Mint Slices (a personal favourite), the Scotch Fingers, and all the while weighing up taste, quality, price, your attempt to be virtuous with respect to diet. And pretty quickly narrowing it down to a couple of options – the Iced Vovos and the Mint Slices – and buy both.

Granted energy is a little more complicated than that, but fundamentally we want to get to a place where consumers are as comfortable making decisions about energy as they are other products and services, where competition and choice is taken for granted.

And to do that people need information; they need tools; they need to be engaged; they need a reason to be engaged; and they need the price they pay for energy to reflect the cost of supplying them, as individuals.

Together, the AEMC’s Power of Choice reforms and the lessons from our reviews of retail competition are key to achieving these objectives.

One of the Power of Choice building blocks is the distribution network pricing rule change, which aims to have network prices paid by individual consumers better reflect the cost of providing network services to them.

Currently, even if the total costs of network services is at efficient levels, many individual consumers pay more than the costs caused by their usage, because of the way network prices are structured. Other consumers, in particular those that use a greater proportion of their energy at peak times, pay less than the costs caused by their usage.

Existing network price structures over-recover for off-peak use of the network and under-recover for peak use. In the draft rule determination, we include a number of case studies to explain this.

By way of example a consumer using an average size north facing solar PV system will save themselves about $200 a year in network charges compared with a similar consumer without solar.

Because most of the solar energy is generated at non-peak times, it reduces the network’s costs by $80, leaving other consumers to make up the $120 shortfall through higher charges.

The same consumer could reduce network costs considerably and align with the savings they receive, by facing their panels west, generating more energy 4 at peak times when it is most needed. That is, less energy in total, but more when it is most valued.

Under the existing network pricing arrangements, the consumer has no incentive to do so as they benefit more by generating more total energy throughout the day.

Equally, a consumer using a large 5kW air-conditioner in peak times will cause about $1,000 a year in additional network costs compared with a similar consumer without an air-conditioner.

But the consumer with the air-conditioner pays about an extra $300 under the most common network prices. The remaining $700 is recovered from all other consumers through higher network charges.

In both examples, some consumers are paying more than it costs to provide services to them, and others less.

The objective of the changes set out in our recent Draft Determination is that network prices paid by individual consumers better reflect the cost of providing network services to them, as individuals.

This will allow consumers to make more informed choices about what energy services they value.

It will also give consumers the information they need to decide what technologies might work best for them to manage their usage, and help reduce their energy charges.

From a market and overall system point of view, it will mean consumers' choices are the driving force behind market development and investment and provide the conditions for a more effective and competitive energy market.

Of course it’s one thing to create the market conditions for choice, but consumers also need the tools to respond to market price signals.

Another important Power of Choice building block is creating opportunities for a competitive energy services market.

It goes without saying that consumers use of technology will be a huge part of the process in driving change and market development in coming years.

We don’t necessarily know which technologies or how they will be used, which is precisely why the Commission’s policy work is agnostic about technological development, but we know they will drive innovation and change and the system must be flexible enough to respond to that change.

The rule change to promote competition in metering and related services; the open access and common communications standards framework for smart meters; arrangements to allow multiple trading relationships at the consumer’s connection point; and measures to improve the switching process – these reforms will all work together to help the energy services market evolve in a way that supports consumer choice.

So how might we predict the future for the National Energy Market?

My advice is to follow the consumer.

They’re in the driving seat and technology is propelling them very quickly in relatively unpredictable ways.

Increasingly, they’re expecting engagement. Not only to be consulted on industry and regulatory activity but to actively participate in the energy market.

So in terms of how the Australian Energy Market Commission sees the energy market of the future, we don’t plan to bet on any single possible future.

Instead, we want a system which is flexible enough to respond to the increasingly sophisticated and diverse demands of consumers, which allows their choices and preferences to drive market development.

But, we won’t get there if we start fiddling with the way energy is bought and sold (the means of exchange) or if there are policy interventions in the market that undermine its operation and the ability of price to reflect underlying demand and supply conditions.

So let’s talk about capacity (so called) “markets”.

There has been increased chatter in recent times suggesting that there may be a case for a fundamental redesign of the wholesale energy market – a move to a capacity (so called) “market”.

This, at least in part, appears to be motivated by the current disconnect between wholesale and retail prices and generation oversupply.

The WA energy market is a good local example of the problem with capacity markets and the WA Government is currently grappling with what to do about the problems they cause – predominantly higher risk and generally higher prices for consumers.

The WEM is typical of other capacity markets in that it relies on a central authority to predict and procure generation capacity.

If your system requires an omnipresent, all knowing being – let’s call him or her ‘god’ – to understand a system completely, have perfect powers of prediction and to know what capacity should be set to match future demand, the only thing you can perfectly predict is that god will be wrong.

In reality, typically in capacity markets our omnipresent, perfect bureaucrat will contract or regulate for too much supply, because that is the rational thing to do given the incentives god faces.

And when he or she gets it wrong and over contracts, the consumer pays.

That is certainly the case in WA. It was the case in the “olden days” of the state-based utilities. The consequence of this type of structure is that demand risks fall on consumers.

We’ve well and truly moved away from this era in the NEM – indeed as I’ve spent most of today’s speech talking about, we are headed in exactly the opposite direction.

So the message to those intending to fiddle with the development of a consumer driven energy market and revert to the risk allocation of the old days is a simple one – you are heading in the wrong direction.

Part of the underlying issue here of course, is the impact of bringing together the way the energy market works with the particular way the Renewable Energy Target is designed.

In effect, because the RET sets a specific GWh target, its risk allocation is the same as a capacity (so called) “market”.

These issues of the interface between the two have always been there, but have only become more evident with the drop off in demand growth.

Governments legitimately have a range of policy objectives in addition to the traditional energy policy objectives.

That’s why we have elected governments to specify policy objectives. But in achieving these different objectives we must be careful, wherever possible, not to jeopardise the achievement of one to the benefit of another.

When contemplating the effective integration of energy and environmental policy, it is important to design a mechanism to achieve an emissions reduction objective that preserves the means of exchange and allocation of risk in energy markets. Because these are the characteristics that make the energy market, a “market” in the first place.

For the NEM to be an effective market, it must be able to respond to changes in demand driven by consumer preferences, changes in technology and other factors, like relative prices, which cannot necessarily be predicted.

For a policy to be sustainable there needs to be a reasonable opportunity to adapt to material changes in market conditions, in a consistent manner.

Robust policy positions should not be predicated on one particular view of the future.

For environmental policy like the RET to be sustainable, investors also need a level of confidence that policy objectives can be met and are sufficiently robust to adjust to changes in market conditions.

It is due to the divergence in the risk allocation mechanisms in the energy market on the one hand, and the current RET design on the other, that we proposed, in our submission to the RET review, moving the RET to a floating 20 per cent target in 2020, as opposed to a fixed GWh target.

The important point is not even the level at which the target is set – let’s call the target “X” – it’s that it is “X per cent” of whatever demand happens to be.

This would shift the allocation of demand risk away from consumers and more appropriately share it amongst investors – renewable and thermal – who are better placed to manage such risk and profit from efficient decisions.

While consumers are going to drive much of the change we experience in the energy market in the coming years through their demands and preferences, we also have to make sure the benefits flow to all consumers.

And we must ensure some consumers don’t get lost in the change and the increasing diversification of the sector. This involves a massive communications challenge.

In May this year, the Commission held its first strategic priorities forum with consumer representatives in order to deepen our relationships with consumers and their advocates as we consider the agenda ahead of us.

Consumer engagement was right at the top of the list of issues we are dealing with, particularly ensuring they having full information about contracts, offers and changes related to new flexible pricing structures.

Equally significant to consumer groups was the impact of energy prices, along with the importance of consumer protections, particularly those that support more vulnerable and low income consumers.

So we need to be able to respond to those concerns about ensuring all consumers benefit from greater competition, and respond to concerns about the necessary consumer protections needed into the future.

Many consumers need the information and confidence to become more engaged in shopping for energy. Our Consumer Engagement Blueprint for the review of competition in NSW energy retail markets recommended strategies to achieve this, including:

  • providing information to consumers that uses different channels to target specific consumer segments as well as the broader community,
  • refinements to existing comparison tools so that consumers have a trusted source of advice that allows ‘apples for apples’ comparisons, many of which are already being considered by the AER, and
  • providing additional support to consumers that need it.

And many of these reforms are being rolled out with some good results.

For example, it was encouraging to see in our recent report on competition in retail electricity and gas markets that 90 per cent of all consumers were aware they could choose their energy company, up to 40 per cent had actively investigated options, and up to 28 per cent had actually switched during 2013.

Consumers are shopping around for better gas and electricity deals more often than they are switching insurance companies, or phone and internet providers.

New retailers are entering markets and winning customers with discounts and other incentives, with conservative estimates of savings from $60 to $240 or more a year, depending on where they live and how much electricity they use.

The other aspect of the communications challenge is to understand that there are an increasing number of already engaged consumers – energy literate consumers – who want an entirely different energy product compared with what has been provided to them in the past.

So as we embrace the challenge of responding to diverse needs – from highly energy literate consumers, to more traditional consumers, to vulnerable consumers – it will be important to have a market that is flexible and able to respond to diversity and range of possible future scenarios.

In the years to come, the structure of the energy sector may be quite different to the one we see today.

The increased interest of new technology providers in our sector has the potential to reshape the way we think of an energy services provider.

The increased use of electric cars, the uptake of home energy management systems and technologies, and other possible demand game changers, which may work in completely opposite directions.

All this has the potential to change the face of the energy sector.

The focus of the AEMC – the agnostic AEMC – is to care deeply about the future and develop the NEM into a market that is flexible and able to respond to whatever the future holds.

Thank you for listening and enjoy what promises to be a fascinating day’s discussion.

ENDS

Registration now open for fourth stakeholder workshop on the competition in metering and related services rule change.

11 September 2014

Registration is now open for the AEMC’s fourth stakeholder workshop on the competition in metering and related services rule change. The workshop will be held in Sydney on 24 September 2014 and will discuss the minimum core model arrangements and the proposal for a consumer to directly appoint a Metering Coordinator.

To register for this workshop, please contact Claire Richards at claire.richards@aemc.gov.au or on (02) 8296 7800 by 19 September 2014. Further information about the workshops is available on the project page.

Final report published for the 2014 Retail Competition Review

22 August 2014

ENERGY CONSUMERS SAVING MONEY BY SHOPPING AROUND

The first national review of competition in retail electricity and gas markets has found people are saving money on their energy bills, but more can be done to make it even easier for consumers to shop and save.

The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) today released its report on competition in retail electricity and gas markets for small customers in the National Electricity Market (NEM), along with new research on consumer experiences.

The level of competition ranges from effective in South East Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia, to less effective in the Australian Capital Territory and is yet to emerge in Tasmania and regional Queensland.

Competition in retail gas markets is at different stages of development between and within states and territories.

AEMC Chairman, John Pierce, said the review survey found 90 per cent of all consumers were aware they could choose their energy company, up to 40 per cent had actively investigated options, and up to 28 per cent had actually switched during 2013.

“Consumers are shopping around for better deals for electricity and gas more often than they are switching insurance companies, or phone and internet providers,” Mr Pierce said.

“New retailers are entering markets and winning customers with discounts and other incentives, with conservative estimates of savings ranging from $60 to $240 or more a year, depending on where they live and how much electricity they use,” Mr Pierce said.

“Previous AEMC research has found that consumers who shopped around in 2012-2013 were able to save around 5-16%.”

The review has involved extensive consumer research, stakeholder consultation and the analysis of data from the Australian Energy Regulator, ombudsmen in each jurisdiction, the Australian Energy Market Operator, regulators and retailers to develop a picture of energy competition in each jurisdiction.

The research found that many customers will shop around for a better deal if they believe the savings will justify the time and effort involved.

“The biggest barriers to consumers confidently shopping around and saving money is a lack of clear information,” Mr Pierce said.

To overcome these barriers, the AEMC has recommended:

  • Simplifying the switching process to make it easier for consumers to shop around.
  • Considering options for raising awareness of the tools available for comparing offers, especially independent, trusted comparison websites and telephone services to improve consumer confidence in the market.
  • Reviewing concession schemes to target financial assistance to those most in need. These consumers should also be encouraged and assisted to review their energy plans to ensure they don't miss out on the benefits of competition.
  • Continuing to harmonise regulatory arrangements across jurisdictions, including implementing NECF and removing price regulation.

The AEMC has considered competition in South East Queensland in light of the Queensland Government’s plan to remove retail price regulation on 1 July 2015. This plan is subject to a number of criteria being met, including that competition is effective.

Mr Pierce said that conditions in the South East Queensland electricity market are right for the removal of price regulation, with increased competition set to benefit customers when that occurs.

The review details the state of competition in each state and territory in the NEM, including the structural, regulatory and market characteristics that impact the level of competition in each jurisdiction.

It is the first review under a revised approach agreed by the Council of Australian Governments, for the AEMC to assess competition in NEM jurisdictions each year. These reviews support the commitment made by jurisdictions in 2004 under the Australian Energy Market Agreement to deregulate retail energy prices where effective competition can be demonstrated.

 

Publication of new rule change requests

21 August 2014

The AEMC has begun publishing rule change requests which we have received but not yet initiated under the rule making process to provide greater transparency about the requests we have received. These rule change requests can be found under the ‘Pending’ rule changes tab on our rule change webpage.

The AEMC endeavours to initiate rule change requests as soon as possible after receiving them, having regard to our work program.

When the AEMC initiates the rule making process for a rule change request, we will invite stakeholders to provide submissions on the request. Generally, when we initiate a rule change request, we also publish a consultation paper to facilitate stakeholder consultation. Stakeholders on our distribution list will be notified when rule change requests have been initiated.

Rule change requests will be published as pending rule changes on the AEMC website shortly after we receive them. 

Registration now open for third stakeholder workshop on the competition in metering and related services rule change.

14 August 2014

Registration is now open for the AEMC’s third stakeholder workshop on the competition in metering and related services rule change. The workshop will be held in Melbourne on 28 August 2014 and will focus on the relationships between parties including the Metering Coordinator, retailer and consumer.

To register for this workshop, please contact Claire Richards at claire.richards@aemc.gov.au or on (02) 8296 7800, by 21 August 2014. Further information about the workshops is available on the project page.

Draft determination made on Customer access to information about their energy consumption

14 August 2014

Proposed rules to give consumers easier access to electricity consumption data

The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) has made draft rules to make it easier for consumers to access information about their electricity consumption from distribution network companies and retailers in an easy-to-understand, affordable and timely manner.

Information to be made available by retailers and distribution network companies on request includes the customer’s metering data and the data used to calculate consumer bills.

This information could be used by consumers to better understand their current electricity use and to choose new products or services (such as time-delay appliances which can be used when electricity is cheaper or to help inform decisions on the costs and benefits of adopting direct load control).

Consumers could also agree to provide this information to energy service providers. These providers could compete with retailers to offer innovative products and services to consumers.

The Commission’s draft rules were made in response to a request from the COAG Energy Council. It is the first proposed rule in a suite of extensive market changes that will implement the AEMC’s Power of Choice reforms designed to enable better and more informed consumer choices.

Submissions made to the Power of Choice Review suggested that most residential consumers do not have adequate information about the costs of their consumption (eg on running air conditioners) or the appropriate enabling metering technology that would show their usage profile.

The Power of Choice review identified the necessary arrangements to give consumers the information, education, incentives and tools that they need to efficiently manage their electricity use. Consumers are in the best position to decide what action is right for them. Together, the Power of Choice reforms provide tools that consumers can use to choose how they use electricity and to manage their spending.

This draft rules in particular are also another step forward in the establishment of a competitive market for services enabled by smart meters.

The draft rules would:

  • allow customers to request access to their electricity consumption data from a distribution network service provider, in addition to a retailer;
  • allow parties authorised by customers to access their electricity consumption data;
  • require retailers and distribution network service providers to comply with minimum requirements relating to format, time frames and costs when a customer, or a party authorised by that customer, requests their electricity consumption data.

The Commission has called for submissions to be made on the draft rule by 25 September 2014.

For more information contact:

AEMC Chairman, John Pierce, (02) 8296 7800

Media Contact: Prudence Anderson, Communications Manager (0404) 821 935

or DL (02) 8296 7817

The environment for successful infrastructure reform

07 August 2014

ACCC Conference Speech “The Environment for successful Infrastructure Reform: The NEM as a case study”

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Introduction

Thank you for inviting me to speak with you this morning. The last time an AEMC Chair spoke at an ACCC Conference was 7 years ago and he used to work with you so I feel particularly privileged.

The organisers asked me to not be distracted by the references to economic literature in the conference blurb for this session but to focus on my own experiences particularly in relation to the National Electricity Market. So a large element of what I will share with you are personal experiences from which I draw some hopefully useful lessons.

One is actually embodied in the session’s blurb. It describes I think two separate streams in the literature – the first being that which describes what is trying to be achieved – “the bright ideas of economists and other thinkers” – which does make a significant contribution to getting reform done successfully.

The second which describes or gives a framework for the processes of reform does not. However insightful these observations are of what’s going on I don’t think they are particularly helpful when trying to implement reform.

Fundamentally we have two – not necessarily mutually exclusive options – we can either use economics to describe what’s going on in reform processes or to help define the outcomes we are trying to achieve. Both are legitimate choices but in choosing the former don’t be under the illusion that you are contributing to the latter.

The Story Begins

Twenty five years ago I was an economist working for the Electricity Commission of NSW having fun measuring total factor productivity and trying to get engineers to use standard financial appraisals to guide investment and maintenance decisions.

That is, I was learning to relate to people whose objective functions, thought processes, approach to decision making and problem solving was very different to mine.

One day I got called up to the General Manager’s office, a gentleman named Barry Flanagan and was sat down next to two people that I had not worked with before; a Dr Brian Spalding from System Control – responsible for day to day operation of the power system and a Dr Paul Smith from Power Development – these were the guys, and they were all guys, that forecast future demand and recommended what new power stations to build and when. Historically the answers to these questions had been – the bigger the better and do it now. But things were changing.

The expected demand growth off the back of the late 1970’s and early 1980’s resources boom had failed to continue. A couple of new Bayswater/Eraring sized power stations (2640 MW) that were on the drawing board had the pen put through them and Mt Piper cut in half yet excess capacity remained.

New methods and techniques for better planning of the power system recommended by the 1986 MacDonnell Inquiry were being implemented and I for one, despite having contributed to that process, was questioning whether better planning was indeed the answer. The Greiner government’s commission of audit highlighted how much of the State’s ‘crisis’ debt levels was used to fund power stations and transmission lines. Greiner’s Commercial Policy Framework which was later to find its way into the 1995 Competition Principles Agreement meant that corporatisation, independent prices oversight, competitive neutrality etc. was on the horizon.

Nationally, the then Industries Assistance Commission had just released its report into the wonderfully titled ‘Government non-tax charges’ in which buried away in an appendix was the curious idea of a national grid and an interstate market for electricity. There was talk of a ‘special’ Premiers conference being held that would discuss microeconomic reforms including setting up an Electricity Working Group to look at whether extensions of the interstate grid were justified and assess the organisational options for achieving this.

More generally there was a growing discussion of the need for the domestic economy to lift its productivity performance. I still remember Ross Gittins at the end of a conference dinner berating a table of Industries Assistance Commission – soon to become the Industry Commission people over the fact that they kept banging on about tariffs and trade protection. They had won that war and it was time to move on to reform of the nontraded goods sector.

The context was right for reform of the electricity industry and that context had many tangled legs – no single one would have been sufficient to galvanise effective action.

So lesson 1: Be wary of single dimensional arguments for reform – if you want sustained successful implementation.

It didn’t matter what perspective you looked at it from:

  • a sector specific or microeconomic perspective
  • a financial perspective – in this case State public finance
  • a broader economic performance, macroeconomic or Commonwealth perspective
  • a short term political perspective due to price increases to cover the costs of excess capacity
  • a management or industrial relations perspective given what was happening inside the utilities at the time
  • or even an international one given what Thatcher was doing to the old CEGB and the 1989 Electricity Act

They all lead to the need for change.

If you think about some other areas of what may be considered obvious reforms – for example urban road pricing - they haven’t happened because the need for change has not been made from a sufficient number of different perspectives. Consequently the need to change is not great enough.

One of the things that concerns me a little about the current discussions over potential privatisations of network businesses in NSW and Queensland is that the arguments are single dimensional. The argument for privatisation is primarily being presented in terms of what other infrastructure can be funded from the net sale proceeds.

While this may appeal to the beneficiaries of this expenditure the same people no doubt pay electricity bills and what we are not hearing is the benefits to the electricity consumer and through them to the wider economy, for instance.

The single dimensional argument for reform creates an unnecessary vulnerability. It leaves governments open to the accusation that they have a single objective, maximising net sale proceeds, when in my experience this is rarely if ever the case. Reality is far more complex.

Another example relates to the role of national competition payments. These were an essential ingredient of the original competition policy reforms. When these intergovernmental agreements ran their course and there were discussions about what would replace them - the refrain was “States should not need to be bribed to do what they benefit from anyway”. Usually said with a superior, self-righteous tone.

Leave aside the arguments about how economic growth shows up in State Budgets as compared to the Commonwealth’s, due to the differences in tax bases and expenditure responsibilities. Such single dimensional, wooden headed attitudes revealed a naivety about how major reforms actually happen and the role that these payments played in delivery reform outcomes. I can’t tell you the number of arguments in support of specific reforms – often around a Cabinet Committee table – that were won with the statement “Unless we do X we will lose our national competition policy payments”. In this case, single dimensional perspectives resulted in lost opportunities.

Tell me and I forget…….Involve me and I learn

But back to Barry’s office. His message was characteristically direct. Governments were thinking about having an interstate electricity market. If they were going to have one he wanted one that worked. Our job for the next 9-12 months was to run trails of different types of markets within NSW to find out which one worked best.

I was stunned. This guy was wanting us to restructure the whole organisation and actually run the power system for real just to find out how markets work. Typical bonehead engineer I thought recalling some of the rugby prop forwards I had played with.

If he wants to know what a market would do give me a couple of people, enough computing grunt and I’ll tell him in a few weeks. Why allow us to disrupt thousands of employees, let us loose to play with billions of dollars’ worth of power stations – oh and there was the little issue of experimenting with the State’s power supply.

My approach – even if it gave correct answers which of course it would have – would have been wrong. It would have denied the business unit managers, their finance staff, the production and maintenance engineers and the control room operators the opportunity not just to learn how to work in a market 8 environment, but how it was supposed to work and to learn how their role fitted in with others.

One particularly interesting phase was the development of what we would now recognise as the NEM’s wholesale spot market. Given things like the nature of electricity demand, its production function, the technical inability to hold inventories and its fungibility, it is perhaps not surprising that to some of us this was going to be a commodity style market with both prices and supply offers able to be adjusted more or less continuously. Contracts would be financial derivatives rather than physical supply contracts. Power station engineers, at least at the time thought differently.

In their view the mechanisms in the output market needed to reflect the contract structures in the input markets – primarily coal. Coal contracts were typically long term with the ability to vary volumes within a band – say ±20% around a base level with 3 months’ notice.

So in the days before you could give people a sense of what equilibrium felt like by showing them the YouTube video of the bar scene from the movie Beautiful Mind we said “ok let’s run the power system that way and see what happens”.

We gave the “competing” generators a demand forecast for a three month period, they submitted offer prices that we ran through a mathematical programming model and we fed back to them production volumes and market prices. Armed with this information we allowed them to submit new offers and around we went again…. and again. And you guessed it; the fourth round offers did not vary much from the third round. It took three rounds to reach equilibrium…. at least ex ante.

We then ran the power system based on these offer prices – as the monthly financial results were published, actual demand varied from forecast, boiler tubes leaked, conveyor belts broke, wet coal got stuck in bunkers etc., the comfort and satisfaction each competitor felt with their average revenue, volume combinations disappeared.

At a review meeting with all the plant managers the clear consensus was “this won’t work”. However they were not yet willing to accept the sort of market I was proposing. It was too busy and variable. They wanted something that was more ‘set and forget’ so they could go back to doing what plant operators do.

That is until one of their own pointed out the similarities between what I was talking about and the control theory principles that as electrical engineers they were all pretty familiar with. At this point the lights went on so to speak. 10 So the next trial involved offer and market prices that varied every thirty minutes and in the process they discovered they could make those units do things that they would never have dreamed of before.

It doesn’t matter how well reform implementation is planned in policy or regulatory world – something will fall between the cracks and then you are relying on the people on the ground to know how to fill them.

One of the greatest attributes of the people who drive successful reform is the knowledge that they don’t do anything that is real. That the success of the reform largely depends on how the people who operate the system and its many parts respond when something happens that we could not have anticipated.

One of the reasons we knew that the lights would stay on when the market became a reality was that there were hundreds of people across NSW and Victoria who because of the trials that had been run in both States knew what they were doing and knew what other people - in what were now different organisations - were supposed to be doing.

I contrast this with rail reform in NSW where a perfectly good reform model fell into disrepute on implementation - largely because new institutions were 11 established without the people working within them being given the opportunity to learn how to work in a different structure.

So lesson 2: Give the people who have to work in the new structures and under different rules and policies the opportunity to learn. And who knows you may actually learn something from their experiences.

“Good Policy must be Marinated”

Back to Barry’s Office again. Having issued us our brief Barry’s next instruction was to go into the room next door and decide who of the three of us was going to lead the team so he could make the necessary announcement. He would be back in 20 minutes. That’s when things got really interesting. To understand why a team leader was necessary you probably need to have worked in a public sector agency….or worked with engineers.

If this task was going to be about setting up a market then as the only economist there was no way I was going to let an engineer run the show. Brian, quite sensibly, was not going to let an economist run his power system and Paul? Well Power Development Division had always lead the big things that happened so why wouldn’t he lead?

We were still arguing about this when after 20 minutes Barry stuck his head in the room and asked “Well....?” The three of us looked at one another and in unison said “We will all lead”. Barry huffed, rolled his eyes and left.

Thus begun one of the most productive professional relationships of my career. One that in the case of my fellow Commissioner Brian Spalding continues to his day. One based on having a common purpose, mutual respect for and recognition of the legitimacy of the other’s viewpoint and trust. Ingredients that while not often explicitly spoken about are an essential element of the environment necessary for successful reform. Successful reform won’t happen without it.

From a circumstance where different perspectives and viewpoints needed to and could be heard and issues debated on their merits – not decided on the basis of whose mouth they came out of - and where we each recognised that we needed the others, developed a decision making criteria.

Any proposal had to pass a three part test – somewhat similar to the prominent economist who said he would never publish something unless he could express it mathematically, graphically and in prose.

Proposals had to stack up from an

  • economic and policy viewpoint
  • an operational and engineering viewpoint
  • a commercial and financial sustainability perspective

E.P.F -  it had to conform to the laws of economics, physics and finance before it got to first base. It may sound obvious but all too often our processes don’t make sufficient room for this to be done. There was no point fixing an operational issue in a manner that created a financial or policy problem – or a policy issue in a manner that creates unmanageable financial problems – such an approach does not lead to sustainable solutions.

This way of working – giving the different perspectives on what works a chance to be heard on an equal footing - indeed demanding that they be expressed, was continued when the NSW team and the equivalent Victorian team combined to integrate their two markets; into the COAG working groups we were involved in; into the National Grid Management Council and its processes and into institutional design. It is reflected in the AEMC’s culture, processes and governance arrangements.

Once the NEM was going to be more than just NSW and Victoria and its development came under the auspices of COAG, a handful of Commonwealth Officials played a critical role in creating the right 14 environment for reform at least when it came to the NEM – mainly by what they didn’t do. What they didn’t do is develop proposals for how this market would work and go through the motions of ‘consulting’ with the States. They didn’t listen politely to proposals from the States, then walk out and seek to have the Commonwealth impose their solution politically.

They operated a ‘College of Cardinals’ like process. Their role was to book the venue, make sure the right people from the States and industry were in the room. Then keep the door locked while the State and industry people worked out what this market would look like and how it was going to work. They knew what they didn’t know and confined their role to assessing whether what the others came up with satisfied the policy objectives. We spent a lot of time in various locked rooms across the country.

Even if the Commonwealth officials did know all the answers – knowing them was not the point. It was the other people in the room who by and large had to walk out and implement the reforms, work with the outcomes and lead others, so they needed to understand them and own them.

So lesson 3: Culture and good process matters and needs to be explicitly considered if the right environment for successful reform is to be created. If reform is to be ongoing and responsibility for managing it given 15 to institutions it needs to be designed into how they are lead, governed and operate.

The Story Continues...

The NEM passed its 15th Anniversary late last year and to mark the occasion, the AEMC with the assistance of KPMG published a case study of the associated reform process. I have discussed three particular lessons that relate to creating the right environment for reform.

  1. That the right context will have many strands
  2. Give the people that have to work in the new structures the opportunity to learn
  3. Culture and processes that have integrity matter.

By drawing on the experiences of over 30 other people who were involved during the 1990’s this publication identifies out eight lessons for successful, enduring microeconomic reform.

Lessons that are hard wired into the AEMC and we will need to draw on as we deal with the current and future phases of the market’s evolution.

When we started the market we knew we were changing the way the industry would develop due to the changes in risk allocation, incentives and price signals. The drivers of how the sector developed would shift from generators to retailers. Changes in technology, relative prices, business models and 16 government policies – often from areas other than the energy portfolios – are continuing that trend with a shift in ‘power’ from retailers and regulated network businesses to consumers.

Consumer representatives, industry participants, governments and market institutions all have a role in facilitating the transition. The Commission for its part is in the process of making rule changes that came out of our Power of Choice review which sought to put consumers in a better position to recognise when the value of energy services to them was greater than the costs to the system of providing it.

Many of these rule changes relate to how network businesses are regulated, and recognise opportunities or to redefine where the boundaries are drawn between competitive and regulated sectors.

Another important ingredient is the lessons learnt from our reviews of retail competition. Nothing will bring the reform process unstuck like consumers that have negative experiences.

In thinking about how to manage this on-going reform process so the outcomes are sustainable it is useful from time to time to remind ourselves of the circumstances and objectives that started this story and the ingredients that delivered previous successes.

Thank you.

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